By C. Peter Timmer
The gradually diminishing function of agriculture on the planet economy_a principally unperceived, poorly understood, yet profound change_is as transformational for developmental fiscal suggestion as gravity has been for physics. C. Peter Timmer argues that policymakers who forget about this primary shift possibility mismanaging their fiscal improvement guidelines, with critical effects. The 'structural transformation' of constructing economies has 4 major gains: a falling percentage of agriculture in monetary output and employment; a emerging proportion of city financial job in and glossy companies; the migration of rural staff to city settings; and a demographic transition in delivery and dying charges that usually results in a spurt in inhabitants development prior to a brand new equilibrium is reached. even supposing all constructing economies adventure those transitions, dealing with the ensuing political results has been an enormous problem for policymakers over the last half-century. attempting to cease the structural transformation easily doesn't paintings. Bolstering the potential of the bad to profit from switch, despite the fact that, does. Investments in human assets, for example_especially in schooling and health_are the main promising techniques to easing the transitions of a constructing countryOs structural transformation. Such options require major public-sector assets and coverage help to augment rural productiveness and rely on political strategies which are delicate to the pressures generated by means of the structural transformation. setting up effective coverage mechanisms to lead constructing economies in the course of the structural transformation can be a concern of worldwide governments within the twenty-first century. This monograph, a global with out Agriculture, was once the 2007 Henry Wendt Lecture, added on the American firm Institute in Washington, D.C. on October 30, 2007. The Wendt Lecture is introduced each year by way of a pupil who has made significant contributions to our figuring out of the trendy phenomenon of globalization and its outcomes for social welfare, govt coverage, and the growth of liberal political associations.
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Additional resources for A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspectives (Henry Wendt Lecture Series)
Certainly, the pattern of movements in the agricultural terms of trade for the two sets of countries is strikingly different, with the Asian countries seeing a long-run decline at half the pace of the non-Asian countries (already seen in figure 2-1). The political economy of these choices is explored below, where the agricultural terms of trade are split into two components, one dependent on world prices for agricultural commodities and energy, the second a residual reflecting domestic factors in the formation of the agricultural terms of trade.
1 The differences fall into five basic categories: 49 50 A WORLD WITHOUT AGRICULTURE • “New” and more difficult initial conditions confronting policymakers • Rising opposition from rich countries, both in the form of protection of their own farmers and concerns over losing their export markets • A relatively stagnant shelf of available agricultural technologies that can be easily borrowed and widely adopted by farmers • International aid donors who have been distracted from their core mission by development fads and pressures from “singleissue” interest groups • A new connection between food and fuel prices that complicates the design of appropriate food policies.
10 • The “D. 12 Efforts to “skip” the early stages and jump directly to a modern industrial economy have generally courted disaster. Controversy over the role of agriculture in economic development also stems from the heterogeneity of agricultural endowments and the vastly different cropping systems seen in Latin America, Africa, and Asia (not to mention the diversity within these regions). It is unrealistic to expect much of a common role in such diverse settings. 16 Virtually all of the studies have concluded that the “agriculture multiplier” is significantly greater than 1, especially in relatively closed, “nontradable” economies of the sort found in rural Africa, where it is often between 2 and 3.
A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspectives (Henry Wendt Lecture Series) by C. Peter Timmer